Written by Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber are still years away from their 30th birthdays. So why does Saturday’s main event matchup feel like such an inflection point for both fighters?
Neither is likely to jump to the front of the flyweight contender’s line with a win at UFC Vegas 107, especially with Barber’s chances hurt even further by her missing weight Friday. And a loss shouldn’t be cause to write off either woman, especially when you consider how they’ve already battled back from adversity.
Blanchfield faced the first hurdle of her UFC career when she was outpointed by Manon Fiorot, a result that has aged just fine with Fiorot recently taking flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko to a competitive decision. Long touted as a blue-chip prospect, Blanchfield rebounded with a gritty performance against former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas to return to the win column.
Barber once aspired to become the youngest champion in UFC history, but that ship sailed early when she suffered back-to-back losses to veteran Roxanne Modafferi and—somewhat ironically—future champion Alexa Grasso. However, Barber turned a corner, winning six straight fights (albeit with a couple of close calls along the way). Were it not for her gaffe at the scale, Barber would likely be knocking on the door of her long-sought-after title opportunity.
Fortunately for fight fans, outside of title talk, there’s plenty of bad blood between Blanchfield and Barber, so they probably don’t need any added motivation to tear into each other once that bell rings.
Also on the main card, Mateusz Gamrot defends his top 10 spot in the lightweight rankings against the streaking Ludovit Klein, Dustin Jacoby looks to hold off Bruno Lopes in the Brazilian’s sophomore outing, and Ketlen Vieira meets Macy Chiasson in a featherweight* matchup of bantamweight contenders.
(*weight issues on Vieira’s side led to her fight with Chiasson being changed from a 135-pound limit to a 145-pound limit)
What: UFC Vegas 107
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, May 31. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 9 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Erin Blanchfield (4, P4P-7) vs. Maycee Barber (7)
Skill for skill, Erin Blanchfield is tough to beat, and even though her standup game is still developing, I still rank her higher in just about every category than Maycee Barber.
If there’s one thing Barber has in her favor, it’s that on her best day, she just scraps. It’s not always pretty and, to be perfectly frank, it’s not always effective, but Barber can put hands on people when she throws caution to the wind and that is her best option here. I’m a firm believer that almost all combat sports athletes are either martial artists or fighters from a mentality standpoint, and I’m comfortable putting Barber in the latter category. She goes in there to hurt.
Unfortunately for Barber, I’d say the same for Blanchfield. Despite her soft demeanor, Blanchfield has shown evidence of a mean streak, and she just has more ways to control this fight regardless of Barber’s approach. She’ll happily trade punches if Barber is overly aggressive and muscle Barber to the mat to secure the rounds.
Blanchfield wins a competitive decision.
Pick: Blanchfield
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein
Mateusz Gamrot looks to stay busy as he takes on Ludovit Klein, who is unbeaten in his past seven (6-0-1) outings. While Gamrot has been on the hunt for bigger fish, he had to settle for the dangerous Klein. A win here gives Gamrot plenty of street cred, but he definitely has more to lose than to gain.
The good news is Gamrot isn’t facing a giant-sized lightweight like Dan Hooker or Jalin Turner, the kind of opponents that have given him headaches in the past with their rangy striking. Klein is actually the one giving up a few inches to Gamrot, so “Gamer” can be a little more adventurous pressing forward without having to worry about a sniper strike abruptly dropping him.
He’ll still have to be wary of Klein’s powerful kicks and counter wrestling. On his rise up the ranks, Klein has shown he’s a well-rounded fighter more than capable of adapting on the fly if Gamrot tests him. Look for this one to have a slow start as the fighters feel each other out.
I don’t believe Klein can stop Gamrot’s grappling and ground-and-pound attack for three rounds, though. Gamrot will start to find success with takedowns in Round 2 and relentlessly pressure Klein to neutralize his offense. He might have to dodge a KO blow or two, but Gamrot should come out on the right end of the scorecards.
Pick: Gamrot
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
The matchmakers can rely on Billy Ray Goff to stand and bang with anyone. Not sure the same can be said of Ramiz Brahimaj.
In his most recent fight with Mickey Gall, Brahimaj showed surprising standup spark, catching Gall with a power shot and putting him down for the first knockout of his career. He looked comfortable on the feet, but if Brahimaj wants to pull off the upset Saturday, he should go back to his grappling roots.
Goff won’t make it easy for him to implement any kind of strategy. He loves to swarm and mix up attacks to the head and body, which will make it difficult for Brahimaj to set up takedowns. Brahimaj has to take a few risks if he wants to draw Goff into his game.
The other scenario I see playing out is Brahimaj getting hurt on the feet and then having to defend off of his back as Goff dives in for the finish. One way or another, I have a hunch Brahimaj’s grappling wins out on this day and he catches Goff with a submission.
Pick: Brahimaj
Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes
Light heavyweight is a wasteland, but one thing we can all count on? Dustin Jacoby getting in the cage and kickboxing fools.
Bruno Lopes has plenty of style himself and looks to be a fun addition to the division, but I favor Jacoby’s tight, technical striking over Lopes’ more freestyle standup. His unpredictable movement should bring out the best in Jacoby, though, so watch for some entertaining exchanges between these striking specialists.
I’m trusting Lopes to not mix the martial arts here if the fight is going his way, though it’s likely he’ll mix in a few takedowns to disrupt Jacoby’s rhythm. This isn’t Jacoby’s first rodeo and he’ll fight those off to keep the action on the feet, where it belongs.
Lopes shows promise, but Jacoby’s octagon experience gives him the edge as he finds a finish in Round 2.
Pick: Jacoby
Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson
I don’t rightly know what to make of this one.
Win or lose, Ketlen Vieira has consistently performed well against the toughest names in the bantamweight division, but one has to be concerned about her weight cut and how she deals with taller opponents. Make no mistake, even though it’s Vieira who asked for this to be changed to a featherweight contest, it’s Macy Chiasson who will be functionally larger on fight night.
Chiasson has had bad luck with fights falling through, whether it’s due to issues on her or her opponent’s side, but when she gets in there she frequently impresses. The Ultimate Fighter 28 winner brings a unique physicality to her contests and she’ll look to press Vieira early. Vieira is tough as nails and an incredible grappler, so I’m curious to see how much she’ll work to force this fight to the ground.
This goes one of two ways: Vieira grinding out a decision win over a frustrated Chiasson, or Chiasson breaking through and finding a finish to add Vieira to her list of veteran conquests. Give me the latter.
Pick: Chiasson
Zachary Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic
Our “please someone finish someone quickly” main card opener of the week is a matchup between glass cannon middleweights Zachary Reese and Dusko Todorovic. Defense is optional here as both men will look to avoid a pink slip and collect a bonus check.
That might sound counterintuitive and in theory could lead to a more tentative bout, but I’m optimistic these two will inevitably revert to their true nature and just start swinging. If that’s how it goes, I’m picking Reese to come out on top when the dust settles. Todorovic has a little more mileage on him and has just been finished way too many times for me to have any confidence picking him at this point.
Reese by first-round knockout.
Pick: Reese
Preliminaries
Jafel Filho def. Allan Nascimento
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh
Bolaji Oki def. Michael Aswell