UFC Nashville predictions

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Derrick Lewis, Tallison Teixeira, you have one job, gentlemen.

A couple of weeks ago, following a titanic heavyweight clash between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines that went the distance, I noted it had been 105 days since the most recent finish in the UFC heavyweight division (March 15, 2025, Waldo Cortes-Acosta KO of Ryan Spann, to be exact). That has stretched to 119 days, but shouldn’t go past Saturday when Lewis and Teixeira clash in the UFC Nashville main event.

(And for good measure, there are two other heavyweight fights on Saturday’s card that should also be devoid of input from the judges.)

So regardless of what’s at stake for either fighter, at the very least we can be optimistic the headlining bout will remind us how fun it can be when the big boys are in there—to coin a phrase from Lewis himself—swangin’ and bangin’. Lewis has gone to just one decision in the past five years, while the undefeated Teixeira has never even seen the second round in eight career fights.

Let’s do this!

What: UFC Nashville

Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

When: Saturday, July 12. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 9 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.

Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira

This is the part where I tell you Derrick Lewis has only lost to the cream of the crop at heavyweight.

Jailton Almeida. Serghei Spivac. Sergei Pavlovich. Tai Tuivasa. Ciryl Gane.

Admittedly, “cream of the crop at heavyweight” doesn’t mean what it used to, but the point stands that Lewis generally only loses to top 10 fighters in his division or opponents on a clear ascent up the rankings. Unfortunately for Lewis, Tallison Teixeira might just fit that bill.

At 6-foot-7, Teixeira brings physical traits to the octagon that can’t be matched. He’s no lumbering big man, though, he’s capable of unleashing sudden strikes that can end matches out of nowhere. As mentioned above, he’s never seen the second round and only fought past the second minute twice. If he puts Lewis away, he’ll do it quickly.

Should Lewis coax Teixeira into a feeling-out round and then get his grappling going in Round 2, that could spell trouble for the Brazilian giant. We simply don’t know what kind of gas tank he has.

It shouldn’t matter. I don’t have much faith in Lewis’ ability to avoid nor absorb hard punches anymore and Teixeira is going to tag him early. A come-from-behind victory is always possible when we’re talking about “The Black Beast,” but I’m predicting Teixeira adds another first-round finish to his growing hit list.

Pick: Teixeira

Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim

In contradictory fashion, I’m going with Stephen Thompson to overcome his budding Brazilian challenger.

The age gap between Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim is 15 years, the same as that between Lewis and Teixeira. One difference is I still have confidence in Thompson’s ability to evade shots, despite his recent knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley. “Wonderboy” remains a unique problem in the standup.

Now, whether Thompson can deal with Bonfim’s grappling is another question entirely. If there’s been one proven formula for beating Thompson, it’s out-muscling him and taking him down and Bonfim would be foolish to not force a few takedowns. Bonfim is more of a reactionary wrestler, so as long as Thompson can keep his distance as usual, he should be able to stay out of danger.

That’s a big if given how explosive Bonfim can be. Still, I have confidence in Thompson to snipe from range and frustrate Bonfim for three rounds en route to a decision win.

Pick: Thompson

Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia

Calvin Kattar’s recent slump isn’t as bad as it looks on paper.

Josh Emmett? Arguably won that one. Arnold Allen? Knee injury stopped that one before it could really get going. Aljamain Sterling? Former UFC champion! And Youssef Zalal? No excuses there, Kattar just got beat.

My point is it’s not as if Kattar has just become some punching bag. He’s still competitive with the majority of the featherweight division and a reasonably stiff test for the white hot Steve Garcia.

“Mean Machine” has been on a ridiculous tear, knocking out his past five opponents, a KO streak that trails only legends Chuck Liddell (7) and Don Frye (6), and heavyweight slugger Sergei Pavlovich (6). I don’t expect him to punch Kattar out since the Massachusetts has never been finished via strikes, but if Garcia pulls that off, then the sky is the limit for him.

Garcia is so on point right now I have to pick him, though Kattar will have his fair share of success in their exchanges. I see Garcia landing the harder shots at key moments in the fight, which should be enough to win over the judges.

Pick: Garcia

Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere

We know Morgan Charriere can fight, but can he scrap?

That’s the question you have to ask of any man who dares to step into the path of “The Train” Nate Landwehr. No, Landwehr might never win any awards for being the most technical fighter, but when it comes down to throwing down, few are better.

Landwehr, occasionally to his detriment, has the gift of being able to lure almost any opponent into a slugfest and if you can’t match the heat he’s throwing, you can get melted real fast. Sure, it’s possible Charriere puts on a tactical performance (borrrriiiiiing) that completely befuddles Landwehr, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Landwehr has enough tricks up his sleeve to match Charriere technique for technique he has to and as soon as he sees a chance to open up, he’s going to let the leather fly.

Charriere will hang tough with Landwehr, but eventually his defenses will break down and Landwehr will become the first man to KO “The Last Pirate.”

Pick: Landwehr

Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane

Vitor Petrino was well on his way to shaking up the light heavyweight division before he ran into two opponents with far more experience, Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby. It’s understandable if fans are disappointed with how his run at 205 pounds ended, but maybe he was meant to compete at the further end of the scale all along.

We’ll find out when he squares up with Austen Lane, a high-level athlete whose martial arts skills leave a lot to be desired, particularly when it comes to his defense. For someone with his physical gifts, you’d think Lane would have developed the kind of movement that makes him harder to hit, but alas, that’s not the case. All six of his losses have come by way of knockout.

Don’t expect that to change Saturday. Maybe Lane goes all out to tackle Petrino to the ground just as he did in his lone UFC win against the dangerous Robelis Despaigne. I doubt that will be effective, though. Petrino keeps this one standing and taps Lane’s chin a few times to end this mercifully in the first.

Pick: Petrino

Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos

This is a 205-pound bout, but really it feels like the fourth heavyweight fight on the card. Though maybe that just says something about the state of the light heavyweight division right now.

Justin Tafa is moving down in weight for this one and the game Tuco Tokkos has the tall task of giving the hard-hitting Australian a warm welcome. Two things are in Tokkos’ favor: His clever footwork and a reach advantage. He has the potential to string together strikes and takedown attempts to throw Tafa off his game. He’ll have to fight smart, because Tafa will be looking to take his head off from minute one.

As much as I like Tokkos’ ability to muck up a fight, he’s lacking the head movement and counter-striking necessary to keep Tafa from walking him down. The Tafa brothers are known for their hand speed, so Junior doesn’t need much of an invitation to start winging bombs. Tokkos’ chin isn’t exactly iron either.

Tokkos will be on the back-foot for as long as this fight lasts, which shouldn’t be more than a few minutes. Tafa by first-round knockout.

Pick: Tafa

Preliminaries

Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin

Chidi Njokuani def. Jake Matthews

Lauren Murphy def. Eduarda Moura

Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Valter Walker

Mike Davis def. Mitch Ramirez

Fatima Kline def. Melissa Martinez

Leave a Reply