Written by Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree know what it takes to fight for a spot at the top of the mountain; soon, one of them might rediscover what it’s like to be back near the bottom of it.
For Hill, a one-time UFC titleholder currently on the first losing streak of his career, Saturday’s UFC Baku main event presents a golden opportunity for him to add another ranked opponent to his résumé and prove that the bright moments he’s had in his championship losses to Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka are more representative of his talents than the end results.
For Rountree, he can affirm that his UFC 307 clash with Pereira wasn’t simply booked because he was the next man up. The Ultimate Fighter 23 finalist scraped and clawed to contender status, eventually stringing together five consecutive wins to earn his shot at gold and then push Pereira to the limit in a brutal encounter. Was Rountree the beneficiary of favorable matchmaking or is he capable of putting on a dominant performance against Hill to stake his claim to another title shot?
The co-main event features another veteran in need of a win as Rafael Fiziev finds himself in the unlikely position of having to stave off a four-fight losing streak. It’s been almost three years since Fiziev’s most recent victory, with a knee injury and a pair of losses to Justin Gaethje accounting for his lengthy slump. He puts his spot in the lightweight rankings up against Ignacio Bahamondes, a hungry contender with a dangerous mix of youth and experience.
In other main card action, Curtis Blaydes welcomes Rizvan Kuniev to the UFC heavyweight division, former RIZIN, Bellator standout, and Azerbaijan native Tofiq Musayev debuts against Myktybek Orolbai, Baku’s own Nazim Sadykhov faces Nikolas Motta, and Muhammad Naimov looks to slow down the streaking Bogdan Grad in the opener.
What: UFC Baku
Where: Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan
When: Saturday, June 21. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Jamahal Hill (7) vs. Khalil Rountree (8)
Jamahal Hill is a difficult fighter to evaluate. He can clearly hang with the elite, whether it’s beating a brink-of-retirement Glover Teixeira or taking a spirited loss at the hands of Jiri Prochazka. He showed plenty of promise early in his career and depending on how you view his past three fights, has arguably lived up to or surpassed expectations.
His size and reach give him an edge in any light heavyweight matchup, one that Khalil Rountree will have to work to navigate over the course of what I expect to be a five-round fight. Both men have plenty of knockout power, but they have plenty of durability, too, so it would surprise me to see this one end before the championship frames.
I see Hill pushing the pace with volume early on and controlling the distance while being wary of Rountree’s one-shot KO capability. Hill’s defense definitely comes and goes, so that’s a major factor to watch as this bout progresses. If he loses focus at any point, Rountree will find an opening to put Hill down.
However, since I’m predicting this fight goes the distance, I have Hill winning on points after 25 tense minutes.
Pick: Hill
Rafael Fiziev (11) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
The towering Ignacio Bahamondes is going to be a load for Rafael Fiziev to deal with. Bahamondes has a ridiculous seven inches of height on the 5-foot-8 Fiziev and he knows how to make use of it, whether it’s attacking from range or tangling his opponents up on the mat. This will be a fascinating chess match for as long as it lasts.
Fiziev is the sharper striker, but his patience will be put to the test against the agile Bahamondes. There’s just no easy way to prepare for such a long fighter that is no slouch on the feet. Spinning strikes and haymakers are fun when you have an opponent that has to meet you in the pocket, but Fiziev and his corner will be the ones left with their heads spinning searching for angles to land big shots.
It seems unfathomable that a fighter as talented as Fiziev could lose four straight fights, even in a loaded division. There’s no denying Bahamondes, though, and I’m picking him to take Fiziev’s spot in the top 15 via knockout.
Pick: Bahamondes
Curtis Blaydes (7) vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Curtis Blaydes went from fighting Tom Aspinall, the best heavyweight in the world, to taking on a UFC newcomer. That’s a rough draw for “Razor,” but what else can be done with him having fought almost everyone in the top 10 (some twice!)? He has a lot to lose and not much to gain here.
I say that with all due respect for Rizvan Kuniev, who is more than deserving of an octagon opportunity. Kuniev has an aggressive style and mixes the martial arts well enough, combining rudimentary striking with a strong ground game. I’m not convinced he has what it takes to put Blaydes on his back though.
What’s that? My goodness, is that K-1 Curtis’ music? My friends, we are in for some heavyweight kickboxing once Kuniev realizes he can’t take Blaydes down. Blaydes is always eager to flaunt his improved striking, sometimes to his detriment, but on this day some sprawling and brawling should more than do the trick against the often wild Kuniev.
I like Blaydes punching his way to a decision here.
Pick: Blaydes
Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai
I’m not entirely sure why this was changed to a 165-pound catchweight bout on weigh-in day, but my guess is it was to accommodate the larger Myktybek Orolbai. This is the second catchweight bout in a row for Orolbai, so it’s fair to question whether this is the last time we see him scheduled for a lightweight bout.
Can Tofiq Musayev’s speed stop Orolbai from just bull-rushing him and winning the fight on the ground? Musayev is an incredibly entertaining striker that loves to march forward with his hands low, daring his opponents to step into range. He utilizes fast hands and beautiful counters to set up highlight-reel knockouts.
Orolbai, win or lose, can take a punch or two, so he’s definitely willing to eat a few hard shots to close the distance. We’ll know early on if Musayev’s takedown defense is up to snuff.
My guess? It is. Orolbai is dangerous, but messing around with that 155-pound weight cut is finally going to catch up with him. Musayev shrugs off a slow start and batters Orolbai on the feet, winning a decision or finding a finish in Round 3.
Pick: Musayev
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
Nazim Sadykhov is set to steal the show at home.
The Bakuvian has been blessed with a matchup that should send the fans home happy as the always game Nikolas Motta is sure to bring the fight to him at the opening bell. Sadykhov has ground skills he can use to defuse Motta if it comes to it, but this should quickly develop into a standup battle.
Sadykhov’s technical ability is too much for Motta, who can easily be tempted into going for the home-run swing over sticking with the game plan. That makes Motta a constant threat, but one the more consistent Sadykhov can handle.
Look for Sadykhov to set up a trap and finish Motta with strikes late in the first or early in the second.
Pick: Sadykhov
Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad is a lot of fun to watch and I look forward to him having 20-plus fights in the UFC. But Muhammad Naimov will set the tone for Saturday’s main card with a workmanlike win.
Naimov has crisp boxing and a potent top game when he can get the fight to the ground. He’d be wise to focus on setting up takedowns as the unpredictable Grad could drop him at any moment. Grad loves to advance at every opportunity, so openings will be there to put him on his back.
Though Grad can grapple as well, he’s more adventurous on the mat, sometimes to his detriment. Naimov will focus on control and position to wear down Grad and nullify his offense.
On the feet, Naimov can do just enough to stay ahead on the scorecards, with timely takedowns helping him cruise to a decision win.
Pick: Naimov
Preliminaries
Oban Elliott def. Seokhyun Ko
Ismail Naurdiev def. Jun Yong Park
Melissa Mullins def. Daria Zhelezniakova
Irina Alekseeva def. Klaudia Sygula