Written by Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Belal Muhammad’s first title defense is the first domino to fall in the UFC’s upcoming plans.
Not to take away from Muhammad’s moment, but you can’t blame fans for looking past the welterweight champion’s UFC 315 headlining title defense against Jack Della Maddalena. By now, everyone is aware of the implications here:
Muhammad wins, his close friend Islam Makhachev passes on a move up and stays at lightweight to defend his title against Ilia Topuria in the main event of UFC 317 on June 28
Muhammad loses, Makhachev goes up to 170 pounds to fight Della Maddalena for the welterweight title, Topuria fights Charles Oliveira for a vacant title (though it could be interim if Makhachev has anything to say about it) at UFC 317
Those are some massive potential fights, both of which are understandably overshadowing Della Maddalena’s title challenge. Della Maddalena, as deserving as he is of a shot, is not the true No. 1 contender at 170 pounds. That’s Shavkat Rakhmonov. And we’ve now twice been robbed of the undefeated Rakhmonov getting his shot at Muhammad (Muhammad pulled out of their fight at UFC 310 due to a bone infection in his foot, Rakhmonov was unavailable to be booked for UFC 315 due to injury).
So we’re left to look ahead at an intriguing contender line for Muhammad if he retains, a superfight for Della Maddalena if he pulls off the upset, and a possible consolation prize for Topuria after he vacated his featherweight belt this past February in pursuit of a second undisputed title.
In other main card action, flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko finds herself in the unfamiliar position of underdog as she looks to hand challenger Manon Fiorot her first UFC loss, Jose Aldo continues his bizarre retirement tour when he takes on the streaking Aiemann Zahabi, Alexa Grasso faces Natalia Silva in a flyweight contender bout, and Benoit Saint Denis looks to get back on the winning track against short-notice replacement Kyle Prepolec.
What: UFC 315
Where: Bell Centre in Montreal
When: Saturday, May 10. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Belal Muhammad (1, P4P-5) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (4)
Jack Della Maddalena? Fun challenger! Good fighter, fine run of form. Puncher’s chance.
I have no clue how he keeps this fight on the feet where it needs to be for him to win.
Unless Belal Muhammad is serious about showing off his “Canelo hands” (uuuuuuuuggggh) then we all know how this plays out: Muhammad will to do just enough striking to get in close, then he’s going to change levels, grab a leg, grab two legs, clinch up, pressure against the fence, body lock, pretty much do everything humanly possible to drag Della Maddalena to the ground. And as hard as Della Maddalena will fight, a takedown is inevitable.
It’s a boring prediction, but Della Maddalena hasn’t shown any consistent ability to stop takedowns, even in fights he’s won. If he can’t stay upright against Bassil Hafez, how in the world is he going to stop Muhammad from grounding him for 25 minutes? Even if we think having five rounds to work increases Della Maddalena’s chances of landing a KO blow, he’s never gone past three rounds in his career so it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he has the gas tank to push for a late finish.
Muhammad retains, Makhachev stays where he is, and Uncle Dana gets his blockbuster UFC 317 main event.
Pick: Muhammad
Valentina Shevchenko (1, P4P-2) vs. Manon Fiorot (3)
Money has been coming in on Valentina Shevchenko all week and that makes sense to me. I never understood why she was the underdog in the first place. It’s Valentina FREAKIN’ Shevchenko.
She’s older and time waits for no one in this game, but it’s not like she’s been dependent on her athleticism throughout her career. Shevchenko’s success has always been a combination of all-around skill, guile, and experience, all traits which are more resilient to aging. Look at that third Alexa Grasso fight. She had a strategy and spammed it to great success. That’s the mark of a smart fighter.
Manon Fiorot presents some serious challenges, to be sure. She’s got size on the champ, so Shevchenko won’t be able to just tackle her and if she goes for one of her trademark throws, she better be on point or Fiorot will be the one landing in top position ready to do damage. Fiorot will also be fearless on the feet, even given Shevchenko’s extensive striking background. The Frenchwoman isn’t fancy, but she’s effective, frequently coming forward with combos and a powerful left hand. You can picture Fiorot dropping Shevchenko early and changing the composure of the fight in a flash.
I’m betting that doesn’t happen and we get another masterful performance from Shevchenko, arguably the best woman ever to compete in MMA.
Pick: Shevchenko
Jose Aldo (9) vs. Aiemann Zahabi
First off, finger of shame to Jose Aldo for miss…just kidding, technically he didn’t miss weight! Literally, before the GOAT stepped to the scale, Jon Anik announced Aldo’s fight with Aiemann Zahabi was now a featherweight bout. Aldo came in at 143, Zahabi at 142.
Aldo looking bad at the scale is nothing new for the Brazilian legend, so pick against him based on how he looked Friday morning at your own peril. I expect a rehydrated (and suspiciously less depleted) Aldo to be in prime form, or at least as close to prime form as he can be at 38. There aren’t many fighters in the world willing to stand and trade with Aldo, with only the best of the best having out-dueled him on the feet.
Zahabi is as sharp as they come, but does he have the technical skills to beat Aldo? Few strikers (shout-out to Petr Yan) have ever been able to match his aggression and adaptability, so even the well-coached Zahabi will struggle to match him shot for shot. I also highly doubt he can Bautista his way to victory (let us never speak of that again!).
I don’t know why they keep putting Aldo in these kinds of matchups instead of manufacturing a legends circuit for him, but I do know he’s still a handful for the current crop of contenders.
Aldo by decision.
Pick: Aldo
Alexa Grasso (2, P4P-3) vs. Natalia Silva (9, P4P-16)
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva is the toughest main card fight to pick.
There’s on sugarcoating it: Grasso looked bad in her trilogy fight with Shevchenko. Maybe Shevchenko was just the vastly superior fighter all along, maybe Grasso’s takedown defense is her kryptonite, or maybe Grasso just had her worst performance at the worst possible time. Regardless, it’s understandable that the odds have Silva stepping over Grasso as she marches towards her own title opportunity.
“Natty Ice” is just nasty in the standup and while sharp boxing has been Grasso’s calling card for much of her career, it’s difficult to imagine her matching Silva’s volume and accuracy. Look for Grasso to utilize offensive wrestling to break Silva’s rhythm. I can’t see Grasso winning this way though, just delaying the inevitable.
Silva has excelled with every step up in competition. This is the biggest step up yet, but I don’t expect her to falter. Silva gets the win and then earns the privilege of waiting for a title shot.
Pick: Silva
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
Look, I’m not going to blow smoke up your butt and tell you Kyle Prepolec can pull off the upset here. But I do like his chances of making Benoit Saint Denis work for it.
Call it Canadian bias, but it warmed my heart to see Prepolec not just get a call on a week’s notice to replace an injured Joel Alvarez, but to get a spot on the pre-fight press conference stage and everything. Make no mistake though, he’s not just happy to be getting a second chance in the UFC, he believes he can win this.
Saint Denis is at a crossroads. After rattling off five straight finishes, he looked like a dark horse contender at lightweight. Then he suffered a riveting loss to Dustin Poirier and a humbling loss to Renato Moicano. So who is he really? A still-developing prospect just entering his sixth year of pro competition or an inexperienced fighter whose growth has been badly stunted? There’s a lot to be learned here even if this wasn’t the matchup fans wanted.
All of that said, I expect Saint Denis to get the win here, though Prepolec won’t embarrass himself. He’s damn near impossible to finish and he’s likely to come out as the aggressor early in the hopes of catching Saint Denis off guard. The talent gap is too large for me to pick Prepolec straight-up though and I expect him to fall short against Saint Denis in a Fight of the Night-winning effort.
Pick: Saint Denis
Preliminaries
Mike Malott def. Charles Radtke
Modestas Bukauskas def. Ion Cutelaba
Jasmine Jasudavicius (14) def. Jessica Andrade (15, P4P-19)
Navajo Stirling def. Ivan Erslan
Bruno Silva def. Marc-Andre Barriault