Written by Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena | Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Belal Muhammad is set for the first defense of his welterweight title.
On Saturday, Muhammad defends his spot atop the 170-pound division when he takes on Jack Della Maddalena in the main event of UFC 315 in Montreal, Quebec. It’s a fight with massive implications, not just for the welterweight belt but for the lightweight title as well. Will Muhammad continue his reign or will “JDM” score the upset and setup a fight with lightweight champion Islam Makhachev?
Let’s check out the keys to victory for both men on Saturday.
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Paths to Victory for Belal Muhammad at UFC 315
Muhammad enters Saturday on an 11-fight unbeaten streak that has propelled him not just to the top of the welterweight rankings, but near the top of the pound-for-pound list. His dominant decision over Leon Edwards in their rematch at UFC 304 highlighted just how much Muhammad has improved during this run to the title. Now, for his first defense, Muhammad gets what looks like a stylistically favorable matchup for him.
For all the talk of Muhammad coming to showcase his “Canelo Hands,” it’s highly unlikely that’s what actually goes down on Saturday. Muhammad is not a bad striker, with some decent kicks and a long jab and sneaky lead uppercut, but his striking is primarily focused as a setup for his wrestling entries. Against Edwards, Muhammad used his hands and pressure to back “Rocky” up to the fence, where he then would shoot in for takedowns. That should be the same game plan this weekend.
Della Maddalena is a dynamic and dangerous fighter, but one with a defined weakness: wrestling. Gilbert Burns was able to take Della Maddalena down repeatedly, and while “JDM” was always able to get up eventually, it put him behind the eight ball and needing a comeback in the third round to avoid his first UFC loss.
Muhammad should be able to replicate much of this success, so long as he can back Della Maddalena up and avoid getting clipped. And while Burns has perfectly fine cardio, Muhammad never slows down, meaning if he can get the wrestling going early, it should be a snowball rolling downhill situation for the champion.
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Paths to victory for Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315
If Della Maddalena is going to upset Muhammad and claim the title on Saturday, the path forward begins and ends with keeping things on the feet. “JDM” is a powerful and crafty boxer, and very simply put, if he keeps this standing, Della Maddalena will leave Montreal with 12 pounds of gold.
But how can “JDM” do that? Hopefully, Della Maddalena has spent his year out of action working on his defensive wrestling, but that’s just a start. There are plenty of tactics available for “JDM” to make life difficult for Muhammad, starting with space.
Against Edwards, nearly all of Muhammad’s takedowns came with Edwards against the fence. Muhammad is not an explosive athlete and struggles to defend takedowns in space, meaning he needs to corner a fighter to get to his spots. Della Maddalena should make keeping his back of the fence a priority on Saturday.
Adding to that, it would be even better if he was the one to pressure Muhammad backward. “Remember the Name” is not a brilliant defensive fighter, and when he faces pressure, tends to respond by retreating and resetting. It’s hard to shoot takedowns on the back foot, and if Della Maddalena can consistently come forward behind his jab and some focused body work, Muhammad will be at a disadvantage.
Lastly, Della Maddalena simply needs to make smart choices. Muhammad is almost certainly going to score some takedowns. That’s OK, so long as Della Maddalena doesn’t consent to play off his back. Della Maddalena has a fun and tricky scramble game, and whenever he gets taken down, “JDM” needs to use that to get up quickly. If Della Maddalena comes out and starts jumping guillotines like he did against Bassil Hafez, he’s basically throwing the fight away.
Prediction
A year-long layoff and numerous injuries are certainly concerning for Della Maddalena, but the closer we’ve gotten to this fight, the more I like his chances. Muhammad put forth a masterpiece against Leon Edwards, but he remains a decision merchant, which is always risky against a dynamic finisher like Della Maddalena. In short, Muhammad has to win 25 minutes on Saturday, while Della Maddalena only has to win a few seconds. That’s a tall order, especially when your opponents have a lot of footage to game plan around your tendencies and skills.
I suspect there’s a reason Islam Makhachev is waiting for his friend to defend the belt: he knows Della Maddalena has a serious chance to win. And “Jackie Three Names” does just that on Saturday, stifling Muhammad’s pressure and takedowns, allowing his superior striking to carry the day.
Jack Della Maddalena by KO (punch) — 2:28, Round 3