Written by Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Alex Pereira is on the hot streak of a lifetime, but if there’s one thing we know about Las Vegas, it’s that everyone’s luck eventually runs out.
“Poatan” defends his light heavyweight title for the fourth straight time Saturday in the main event of UFC 313, and for the third time in “Sin City.” His past two Vegas headliners have been fortuitous as he scored memorable knockouts of Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, and he’s pushing his chips back in to take on Magomed Ankalaev, the rightful No. 1 contender.
Ankalaev is undefeated in 13 straight contests, and were it not for a last-second loss in his UFC debut in 2018 and a few strange results along the way, he likely would have challenged for the title years ago (and maybe already be champion). However, Pereira—No. 2 in the MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound Rankings—has outpaced contenders in two divisions with a third possibly in his sights, so there’s plenty on the line tonight besides the gold around the Brazilian slugger’s waist.
Is Ankalaev about to be the ultimate spoiler?
In other main card action, Justin Gaethje meets Rafael Fiziev in an unexpected lightweight rematch, towering 155ers Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes face off, one-time strawweight title challenger Amanda Lemos puts Iasmin Lucindo to the test, and King Green looks to slow the momentum of the white-hot Fighting Nerds team when he fights Mauricio Ruffy in the lightweight opener.
What: UFC 313
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 8. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPNews and ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (2)
Alex Pereira’s run at the top has been a joy to watch, which makes it that much tougher to pick against him.
Look, I don’t want Pereira to lose a dreary decision to Magomed Ankalaev and miss out on a chance to jump up to heavyweight for the chance to become the UFC’s first three-division champion. MMA is supposed to be fun and meritocracy be damned, that would be amazingly fun! But Ankalaev is going to take care of business Saturday.
It won’t all be wrestling. I know everyone expects Ankalaev to go full Khabib here and just shoot single legs for 25 minutes, but that won’t work against Pereira and his much-improved ground game. You can get him down, but keeping him down is another story, and that’s just a waste of Ankalaev’s energy.
It’s the threat of the takedown that is the key to Ankalaev’s success. He’ll get Pereira down early, just to get him thinking, and that will open up his striking game. Ankalaev frequently gets knocked for not pushing the pace in the standup, which is fair, but when he sees openings, he typically finds a way to finish.
Pereira’s keys to victory are no secret. Keep the fight standing and let those magical hands fly. Every exchange puts Ankalaev at risk of a knockout and if Pereira can find his rhythm on the feet, there’s little Ankalaev will be able to do other than panic shoot.
If the Pereira era comes to an end Saturday, it’s only right that it happens in dramatic fashion. After dropping two of the first three rounds to Ankalaev’s methodical tactics, the champion ramps up the aggression in the championship rounds, only to be put to sleep in the fourth.
Yup, I’m going Ankalaev by knockout.
Pick: Ankalaev
Justin Gaethje (5) vs. Rafael Fiziev (11)
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev might not be as fun as some of the other possibilities we could have had for Dan Hooker’s replacement, but this is still a fight between two of the best lightweight strikers in the world and I’m not taking that for granted.
Their first meeting was as entertaining as it was close and the rematch promises to be another thriller. It’s just a perfect matchup, with Gaethje’s straightforward style pairing perfectly with Fiziev’s more angular approach. The only disappointment is that they weren’t able to make this a five-rounder.
I had Fiziev winning the first matchup two rounds to one and I predict the universe rights itself this time. It’s not fair for Gaethje to lose out on a potential title shot in a runback that he wasn’t planning to give, but Fiziev is set to make a strong comeback and “The Highlight” just so happens to be standing in his way.
They’re going to a decision again, with Fiziev earning a unanimous nod.
Pick: Fiziev
Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Finally, these two are picking on someone their own size!
I find it darkly comic that the ginormous Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes cut all those pounds this week just to run into an opponent with nearly identical dimensions, but that’s the bizarre game these gentlemen have chosen to play.
Turner has lost three of his past four, but his split decision setbacks to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot actually spoke more to his potential than anything. At times, “The Tarantula” looks like he’s just two or three adjustments (or perhaps a new weight class?) away from making it over that top 10 hump (let’s kindly forget the drubbing Renato Moicano just gave him). He’s had experience going up against the elite, which is more than Bahamondes can say so far.
Bahamondes is actually where Turner was in 2023 when he took a step up in competition, but now it’s Turner playing the gatekeeper. I trust Turner’s standup and finishing instincts a little more, so I’m leaning towards him beating Bahamondes to the punch and finishing in the first.
Pick: Turner
Amanda Lemos (6) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (7)
We didn’t see the best of Iasmin Lucindo in her most recent outing, which is understandable given that she took on the always tough Marina Rodriguez. Still, she used her grappling to gut out a close call, and like Turner, probably learned a ton from the experience.
Enough to get past Amanda Lemos? I’m not convinced. Lucindo’s standup still needs work and Lemos can match her on the feet and on the ground. It’s fascinating to see the 23-year-old evolving in real time, but Rodriguez didn’t afford her much room for mistakes and neither will Lemos.
Lemos stings Lucindo with her striking, prompting her to grapple, which Lemos will be more than happy to do. We’ll be treated to a few spirited scrambles, with Lemos eventually gaining the offensive edge and catching Lucindo with a submission.
Pick: Lemos
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy is another fantastic piece of matchmaking to open the pay-per-view. Both guys will be loose as a goose with their hands closer to their knees than up protecting their faces and there will be a real sense that anything can happen once the fists and feet start flying.
As with a lot of fighters known for flashy finishes, there are questions surrounding Ruffy’s cardio. Can Green weather an early storm and turn up the heat in the middle period and then outlast Ruffy, or has Father Time truly caught up to the 50-fight veteran? One thing to keep in mind is that when Green loses these days, he goes down hard. His last four losses have all come by knockout or submission.
Green remains competitive at 38, but I can’t get past the age factor entirely. Much of this matchup will be determined by speed and athleticism, both of which are heavily in Ruffy’s favor.
Ruffy by knockout in the first or early in the second.
Pick:
Curtis Blaydes (6) def. Rizvan Kuniev
Joshua Van def. Rei Tsuruya
Brunno Ferreira def. Armen Petrosyan
Carlos Leal def. Alex Morono
Mairon Santos def. Francis Marshall
Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda
Djorden Santos def. Ozzy Diaz