Written by Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Jon Jones has been waiting a long time for this even if no one else has.
When Jones captured a vacant heavyweight title with an absolute drubbing of Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, few took issue with the suggestion that Jones’ first defense could be against Stipe Miocic, a fellow legend of the game. Miocic holds the record for most successful consecutive defenses (3) in the division and he defended it four times total across two reigns.
The problem is that Jones’ title win happened in March. Of 2023.
Miocic hasn’t fought since his second title run was ended by a Francis Ngannou knockout in March. Of 2021. He hasn’t won a fight since August 2020.
And during all this time, a promising heavyweight named Tom Aspinall ascended to the top of the division with a brilliant run of knockouts against top competitors. Aspinall is currently the interim champion, has already defended it once against Curtis Blaydes to avenge his lone UFC loss, and he stands at No. 1 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings while Jones and Miocic have both been removed for inactivity.
We’ve all had to accept that Jones was never going to fight Aspinall this year (it should be noted Jones spent much of the first half of 2024 recovering from a pectoral injury) and might never fight Aspinall, so all we can do is appreciate that we’re about to see the dream matchup of Jones vs. Miocic—even if it’s a tad past it’s best before date.
In other main card action, lightweight contenders Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in a five-round co-headliner, undefeated middleweight prospect Bo Nickal takes on the challenge of veteran Paul Craig, top-15 flyweight Viviane Araujo looks to snap Karine Silva’s 10-fight win streak, and Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop look to open the pay-per-view with a highlight.
What: UFC 309
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York
When: Saturday, Nov. 16. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Hulu, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN+, ESPNews, FX, and Hulu at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Putting aside all the bullshit, this is still Jon Jones we’re talking about here. And when the cage door closes, Jon Jones is still pretty damn good.
There have been some close calls for Jones in recent years, but I’ve always been a believer that Jones is at his worst when he doesn’t have the proper motivation (see: Dominick Reyes, Thiago Santos). While that’s an easy excuse to make for “Bones” whenever he has an off-night, it’s fair to contrast those performances with when he’s at his best.
He manhandled Ciryl Gane, an athletic heavyweight who presented Jones with serious problems on paper (uh, other than in the takedown defense department). Alexander Gustafsson, one of Jones’ first real tests, didn’t make it past Round 3 when Jones was locked in for the rematch. He holds two convincing wins over Daniel Cormier (one of which has been erased from history due to a failed drug test, but still!).
Even though some of his most memorable moments were years back, I have no reason to assume he’s lost his one-of-a-kind combination of skills. Elite wrestling. Vicious ground-and-pound. Frustrating distance striking. Nigh-impenetrable defense. Clinch work that is maybe the best we’ve ever seen from a mixed martial artist.
It sounds ridiculous to brush off Stipe Miocic as only having a puncher’s chance, but what else can we do when we’re debating the odds for a fighter that recently celebrated his 42nd birthday and hasn’t won a fight in over four years? Miocic never had that air of arrogance and invincibility like Jones, which is one of the reasons his time at the top so compelling.
Miocic is a great wrestler and has more than enough power to hurt Jones if he’s able to close the distance. That’s such an enormous “if.” Jones has such a speed and athleticism advantage over Miocic that there’s almost no way he gets caught early unless he completely underestimates the challenger. And if Miocic gets too close, Jones will look to dump him on his back. If (there’s that word again) Miocic can stuff a takedown or two, then this fight gets interesting.
There’s just too many ways for Jones to win here and this definitely falls into the category of fights he’s motivated for. He hasn’t shut up about it for over a year!
So we’re getting Good Jon Jones on Saturday night as he adds another impressive name to his hit list. After that, we can get back to endlessly pontificating on what he might do next.
Pick: Jones
Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-17) vs. Michael Chandler
This is such a dangerous fight for Charles Oliveira with little upside, I’m actually getting serious upset vibes. What does he gain from beating Michael Chandler again? Would it really earn him another shot at Islam Makhachev? Or if Makhachev loses to Arman Tsarukyan in a still-to-be-booked title fight, would Oliveira get a rematch with Tsarukyan, who just beat him in a competitive fight this past April?
He definitely doesn’t have as many obvious reasons to be motivated as Chandler. “Iron Mike” can avenge a loss, steal the show at Madison Square Garden, and possibly slip into a title shot after wasting the past two years chasing Conor McGregor. We can criticize Chandler all we want for his dogged pursuit of McGregor, but he somehow always finds a way to keep his name near the front of the contender line.
As strange as the timing is for this rematch, it should make for a compelling bout. Oliveira is always ready to risk it for the biscuit and you can bet Chandler will be there at every turn to meet him head on. I’m always going to favor “Do Bronx” in this scenario, so he should shut the door on this non-feud, this time forcing a tap from Chandler.
Pick: Oliveira
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Quality booking here as Bo Nickal has a legitimate test ahead of him in Paul Craig. That’s a big step up from Cody Brundage, Val Woodburn, and Jamie Pickett.
That said, Craig is also the perfect name to usher a prospect along. He’s on the other side of 35, he’s in a 1-4 slump (with all of his losses coming against quality fighters), and he’s highly susceptible to a finish. Even better, he has some impressive wins to his name, so if Nickal beats him, he gets to say he beat the guy who beat the guys. Smart way to push a prospect.
Nickal is the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He’s aggressive, explosive, and, oh yeah, he can wrestle a little. Craig is an eager grappler when it comes to fighting off of his back, but that would be a mistake with Nickal bearing down on him. I see Craig attempting to use his veteran guile to lure Nickal into a trap only to be obliterated on the ground.
Pick: Nickal
Viviane Araujo (12) vs. Karine Silva
This matchup isn’t getting the same level of hype, but Karine Silva is facing a similar challenge to Nickal. Viviane Araujo has been a mainstay in the flyweight rankings and she remains a tough out even with losses in three of her past four fights. She’s near impossible to finish, she’s a strong grappler, and she doesn’t mind making a fight ugly to get a win.
Silva has stormed out of the gate to start her UFC career, finishing her first three opponents in the first round and then earning a decision nod over veteran Ariane da Silva. She’s ready to climb the rankings and that starts with Araujo, who has typically only lost to contenders.
It’s the calculated aggression that Silva fights with that makes her so dangerous. She’s never in a hurry, never scrambling to figure out her next move. When she sees an opening, she pounces; when she senses weakness, she finishes. Silva’s win over da Silva was the first time she had to go to the scorecards to secure a victory.
A ground battle could turn into a stalemate, so I favor Silva to make the most of her moments on the feet and use well-timed power punches to stay up on the cards. She’ll score points from top position if the opportunity presents itself, but otherwise I expect Silva to deliver a mature performance en route to a decision win.
Pick: Silva
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Take Mauricio Ruffy’s creative and athletic offense and mix it with a short-notice opponent with defensive deficiencies. Can you say… Performance of the Night bonus?
James Llontop failed to hit the contracted catchweight limit for this fight after being called upon two weeks ago, so based on that it’s fair to say he’s not at his best. I’m sure he’s going in with the intention to win, but coming in over the limit tells you a lot about how prepared he is to face one of the lightweight division’s most exciting up-and-comers.
Look for Llontop to come out hot early to try and catch Ruffy off guard and mitigate any potential cardio issues. Ruffy will use slick movement to create angles from which to pick Llontop apart before landing a coup de grace strike. And the Fighting Nerds roll on.
Ruffy by first-round knockout.
Pick: Ruffy
Preliminaries
Jonathan Martinez def. Marcus McGhee
Chris Weidman def. Eryk Anders
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson
David Onama def. Roberto Romero
Marcin Tybura (9) def. Jhonata Diniz
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Mickey Gall
Oban Elliott def. Bassil Hafez