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Gilbert Burns is clutching on to that torch.
It’s been four years since Burns fought for and failed to capture the UFC welterweight title, and though the 38-year-old veteran has bounced back from that disappointment, time has caught up with him and he finds himself on the first three-fight skid of his career. That slump threatens to continue Saturday when Burns meets the undefeated Michael Morales in the UFC Vegas 106 main event.
This is a big opportunity for Morales. At 17-0 (5-0 in the UFC), Morales looks all the world like a future champion and he’s made a habit of beating more experienced fighters with his past three wins coming against Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin. A top 10 ranking awaits him if he beats Burns as expected, though “Durinho” shouldn’t be counted out so easily.
In other main card action, Paul Craig puts his job on the line against Rodolfo Bellato, Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos fight in a lightweight bout, Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev chase a highlight, and streaking featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa open the show.
What: UFC Vegas 106
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, May 17. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Let’s be clear about one thing: Gilbert Burns can win this fight. He just needs a lot to go his way if he’s going to hand Michael Morales his first defeat.
Grappling-wise, we know Burns can take care of business. If he’s able to get this fight down early, he can sap a lot of Morales’ strength and mitigate the size difference. Keep in mind, this is a five-round fight, so the more rounds Burns can bank early the better. Morales’ gas tank is untested and dragging him into deep waters should be key for Burns’ game plan.
Burns still has plenty of pop in his hands, too, so he won’t be out of answers should this fight break down into a brawl. But he’s better off not going the striking route.
Morales is so fundamentally solid and has such intelligent striking, with gorgeous footwork and well-timed feints used to set up his flashier techniques. His athleticism also allows him to cover up mistakes quickly, and that includes Burns potentially putting him on his back. Just when you think Morales is on the defensive, he explodes out of danger and turns things around. And once he starts rolling downhill, there’s no stopping him.
Burns has shown he can still compete with the best, but he’s undeniably lost a step. He’s 13 years older than Morales and what’s more significant is the difference in in-cage mileage, not to mention the hours in the gym. If this were Burns from two or three years ago, this is closer to a toss-up. As it stands, Morales is heavily favored for a reason.
Morales by decision.
Pick: Morales
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
It’s fun to root for Rodolfo Bellato. The brutish Brazilian’s first two UFC fights have been pure chaos and he certainly looks at times to have top 15 talent, though it’s hard to fully get behind that when he takes so much damage in his fights. Perhaps he’ll be more methodical against Paul Craig.
Craig has no illusions about the stakes of this fight. Win and you can expect to see him in the octagon again. Lose and his UFC run is donezo.
He did no favors for himself with a listless performance against Bo Nickal, a result that looks even worse given Nickal’s own struggles. Craig has also been a slow starter for much of his career and the last thing he should do is allow Bellato to set the pace.
Bellato is going to come out with serious fire as usual and I doubt Craig will author a comeback, which used to be his specialty. I foresee a big knockout for “Trator.”
Pick: Bellato
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos
Mairon Santos definitely isn’t taking the easy path after winning The Ultimate Fighter 32. “The Legend” (that’s right, you change your name back, Ilia Topuria!) makes a quick turnaround after fighting in March and he does so up a division up against Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with far more UFC experience. Maybe this is some kind of self-imposed penance after he got away with a decision against Francis Marshall, but he needs to be careful or his considerable promise could be stifled.
Yusuff’s jump up to 155 pounds is apparently a permanent move and that makes me worry for Santos even more, because that suggests Yusuff has properly bulked up for this matchup. He’s always had good striking even as knockouts have eluded him, and removing a difficult weight cut from the equation could open up his game. With extra energy, Yusuff can let his hands go early and with reckless abandonment (h/t Dominick Cruz).
I’m probably being too safe with my expectations for Santos, but I’ve seen Yusuff give too many solid fighters fits to pick against him here. That’s right, I’m not putting my faith in a recent TUF champions.
Ashamed.
Pick: Yusuff
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
This one is going to be a trainwreck.
You don’t call Dustin Stoltzfus unless you want a fight to end inside the distance and the can be said of Nursulton Ruziboev. The pair have their fair share of decisions on their résumés, but tonight you can expect them to meet in the middle and throw hands.
That’s the best scenario for Stoltzfus, who scored a surprising knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault in November when the Canadian decided to slug it out with Stoltzfus against the fence. Moments later, Stoltzfus was celebrating a first-round knockout.
He’ll have Ruziboev coming straight at him so the opportunities will be there for Stoltzfus to steal the fight, but Ruziboev’s accuracy and ferocity should win out. He’ll sting Stoltzfus on the feet and then put him away with ground-and-pound or a submission on the mat.
Pick: Ruziboev
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
Excellent matchmaking here, pitting two veteran featherweights with under-the-radar win streaks against one another.
Julian Erosa is the more familiar face to most fans, having been on his grind for 15 years and having earned a reputation for being a tough out. Whether on the feet or the ground, the rangy and versatile Erosa can give any opponent a headache.
Melquizel Costa has been doing his best to make up for lost time since making his UFC debut in 2023. He’s currently riding a three-fight win streak and can make it four wins in 11 months if he gets past Erosa.
It’s rarely pretty with Costa, though his ability to battle back from adversity is one of his best attributes. The same can’t be said of Erosa, who has a tendency to fall flat in the first when he’s off his game. On the other hand, Erosa also has plenty of first-round finishes to his name.
I’m leaning towards Erosa here, as I think this one goes past the first five minutes and I like his high-level experience to carry him to a victory. “Juicy J” takes it on points after three rounds of back-and-forth action.
Pick: Erosa
Preliminaries
Matheus Camilo def. Gabe Green
Thiago Moises def. Jared Gordon
Yadier del Valle def. Connor Matthews
Tainara Lisboa def. Luana Santos
Denise Gomes def. Elise Reed