Written by Alex Pereira | Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Alex Pereira is back!
On Saturday, Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line against Magomed Ankalaev in the main event of UFC 313. Before that, Justin Gaethje returns to the cage for the first time since his iconic knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 when he runs things back with former foe Rafael Fiziev.
It’s a pay-per-view weekend which means big fights, so let’s dive right into the bets.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Single Plays
Rafael Fiziev (-178)
Fiziev steps in on short notice against Gaethje in the stead of an injured Dan Hooker and that seems like a tough draw for Gaethje. Yes, “The Highlight” won their first encounter, but he did so by the skin of his teeth. Now, Gaethje is 36 years old and coming off the most brutal knockout loss of his career. Frankly, I’m far more concerned about that than I am Fiziev’s long layoff and knee injury. Feels like Fiziev gets to avenge a loss on Saturday.
Jalin Turner (+102)
I’m a big Jalin Turner supporter and have been forever. Ignacio Bahamondes is an interesting matchup because he is one of the few lightweights who can match Turner’s size, but he’s also unlikely to attack Turner’s weakness: grappling. Turner is a dynamic and lethal striker, and would probably be on a two-fight winning streak if he was a little more cutthroat against Renato Moicano, and I expect him to get back in the win column with authority on Saturday.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Ends By KO/TKO (-155)
I’ve got a full breakdown of this fight coming so I won’t dive in too deep here, but the main event on Saturday feels like an incredibly close contest. These are the two best light heavyweights in the world, and both men are potent offensive forces. Obviously, if Pereira wins it will most likely be by knockout, but over half of Ankalaev’s career wins have come by KO or TKO. Both men have the power to knock the other out on the feet, and if it goes to the floor, Ankalaev has the sort of nasty ground and pound to end it there as well. This is a good price for the most likely outcome.
Armen Petrosyan by KO/TKO (+210)
Petrosyan takes on Brunno Ferreira in a prelim bout that is some of the best matchmaking in recent UFC history. Why is that? Because Petrosyan is “Superman” and Ferreira is “The Hulk!” This is a classic DC vs. Marvel superfight and we’re getting it on ESPN+!
And fortunately, we know exactly how this fight goes. Superman and The Hulk squared off in Marvel vs. DC 3 and though Merged Hulk gives Superman a good battle, in the end The Man of Steel knocks Bruce Banner out cold. So that is exactly what happens again on Saturday.
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Parlay
We took a week off from Gimmick Parlays last week and it would have been a winner! Just our luck but rest assured, we’re back with a vengeance this week. There are a few options you could choose from for a Gimmick Parlay on Saturday, but can I offer you the Santos Parlay?
Mauricio Ruffy (-520)
“But Jed, this man is not named Santos!” you shout at your phone/computer.
You poor fool, do you know anything? Mauricio’s family name actually is Santos, but he goes by Ruffy, apparently a character from One Piece (I did not know any of this until media day). And while I have a deep amount of respect for King Green, he’s looking a little faded, and Ruffy has the Fighting Nerds magic behind him, and should win.
Mairon Santos (-340)
Mairon Santos is the most recent Ultimate Fighter winner and making his first non-TUF appearance in the UFC against Francis Marshall on the prelims. While “TUF Winner” isn’t quite the seal of approval it used to be, Santos is a good enough prospect and should get his hand raised as well.
Djorden Santos (-194)
The first leg of the Santos Parlay is Djorden Santos making his UFC debut from Contender Series against Ozzy Diaz. Djorden was not a premier prospect in my estimation so he’s probably the most concerning leg of this parlay, but he’s a good enough boxer and Diaz has basically lost to every good fighter he’s ever come up against.
Parlay these three bets together for +133 odds.
Wrap Up
It was only a small win last week, but a win is a win. We’ll take those any time. Hopefully we get a streak going with another positive weekend.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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