How certain is Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight? Here are reasons why it will and won’t happen.

Who’s going to win the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight? That’s not the only question being asked about the heavyweight bout.

Another question: Will the fight – scheduled for Nov. 15 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and to be shown on Netflix – actually take place?

It’s already been postponed, so what’s to keep it from being canceled altogether?

There are reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism.

Tyson vs. Paul: Reasons to believe it WILL happen

Since resuming training in late July, after a six-week layoff following his medical emergency, Tyson has released a handful of video clips of him training. They’re not enough to demonstrate he has the reflexes to win, but the 58-year-old former world champion does look fit and powerful.

Tyson and Paul have benefited from the immense prefight publicity while pitching a variety of products. But to walk away prematurely would be to pass up on the massive payoff from the fight. Additionally, bailing out now would tarnish their legacies.

There’s no prefight out-of-competition drug testing, so Tyson can consume all the cannabis he wants without putting the fight at risk. During training, Tyson has said he’s used cannabis, a banned drug in combat sports competition in Texas. Though random drug testing is implemented on the day of the fight, however, those test results won’t be available for several days. That means a positive drug test by either fighter will not result in the bout being canceled.

(A positive drug test triggers a six-week suspension and, if the winner tests positive, the outcome is changed to no decision.)

Like Tyson, Paul faces the risk of an injury between now and the fight. But the chances of that happening to a 27-year-old boxer are remote.

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Tyson vs. Paul: Reasons to believe it WON’T happen

In May, Tyson had a medical emergency his team attributed to an “ulcer flareup.’’ Not only did it lead to the fight being postponed, but it also served as a reminder that Tyson is 58.

“I think that’s a safe statement,’’ said Lawrence Kosinski, a Chicago-area gastroenterologist, “but I suspect there are other contributing factors.’’

Among the factors, according to Kosinski, are nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) such as aspirin, ibuprofen and naproxen an older athlete might depend on to offset pain from strenuous training. The ongoing use of NSAIDs could put Tyson at risk of more ulcer issues.

“We continue to monitor the situation and will conduct the usual pre-fight physicals the day before the fight,’’ said Tela Mange, communications manager for the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, which oversees combat sports in Texas.” I cannot speak to whether we would require any further testing between now and the pre-fight physicals.’’

In August 2022, Tyson was spotted in the Miami International Airport in a wheelchair and at the time was using a cane because of back issues. It was another reminder that Tyson’s health is far less reliable than when he deserved the title of Baddest Man on the Planet.

 Tyson has said he doesn’t need the money he’ll be collecting from the fight, which means he doesn’t need the fight at all. There’s nothing to keep him from walking away if he has a last-minute change of heart.

This story was originally published by USA TODAY Sports.